Russian Exporters Have Lowered Their Estimates for Wheat Harvest and Exports in 2024/2025

The Russian Union of Grain Exporters has presented a new consensus forecast for the grain harvest and its exports in the 2024/2025 harvest year (starting on July 1). Market participants lowered their estimates, mainly for wheat, according to materials published on the Union’s Telegram channel.

Grain croppage in 2024 is estimated at 130.9 million tons (minus 2.7% compared to the previous forecast), including 84.6 million tons of wheat (minus 2.5%), 19 million tons of barley (minus 1.6%) and 15.3 million tons of corn (same).

The consensus forecast for grain exports considers the export of 58.2 million tons (1.5% less than previously expected), including 45.4 million tons of wheat (minus 3.2%). Estimates of the export potential of barley and corn remain without changes at 4.3 million tons and 5.3 million tons, respectively.

The Union started publishing consensus forecasts in mid-May due to unfavorable agroclimatic conditions. The survey involves the Union members and partners. According to Rosstat, in 2023, the Russian Federation harvested 144.962 million tons of grain, composed of 92.851 million tons of wheat (minus 10.9% year by year), 21.147 million tons of barley (minus 9.6%) and 16.628 million tons of corn (plus 5.3%).