SovEcon Foresees Decline in Ukraine’s Grain Output and Export in 2024-2025

Forecasts from the SovEcon analytical center indicate a 25% decrease in Ukrainian wheat exports for the 2024-2025 season, amounting to 13.6 million tons. Corn exports are also expected to fall by 23%, reaching 22 million tons, a decline from the previous year’s figures.

“The reduction in offerings from Ukraine is expected to bolster Russian exports,” says the statement.

New-season wheat production is estimated at 20.4 million tons, down from 21.6 million tons the previous year. Corn production is also expected to decline, with forecasts suggesting a drop to 27.6 million tons from 31 million tons. Experts attribute this downturn to a reduced area sown with maize and a decrease in yields for both crops.

According to SovEcon, Ukrainian wheat carryover reserves are expected to stand at 0.9 million tons at the close of the 2023-2024 agricultural year (ending June 30, 2024), marking a significant decrease from the 4.0 million tons recorded a year earlier. In a similar vein, corn reserves are anticipated to fall to 1.5 million tons, a drop from 4.2 million tons. This decline is attributed to robust exports, with wheat shipments from Ukraine estimated in the concluding season at 18.2 million tons and corn exports at 28.4 million tons.

SovEcon’s data identifies Spain as the largest importer of Ukrainian grain, with 5.6 million tons of wheat and 5.3 million tons of corn shipped to the country over an 11-month span. Egypt is next, having imported 1.6 million tons of wheat and 3.5 million tons of corn, followed by China receiving 4.6 million tons of corn.