ICAR Lowers Corn Harvest Forecast, Maintains Estimates for Wheat and Barley

The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has revised its 2024 Russian corn yield estimate down to 14 million tons. Forecasts for wheat and barley remain unchanged at 83.2 million tons and 16.9 million tons, respectively. These figures were presented at IKAR’s summer conference, ‘Where the Margin Is – 2024’.

“We recently lowered our corn yield forecast to 14 million tons, down from 14.5 million tons, and reduced our export estimate to 3.8 million tons,” said Dmitry Rylko, IKAR CEO, attributing the changes to current weather conditions in the southern regions. According to the data provided, the total yield of corn in 2023 reached 17 million tons, with exports hitting a record 7 million tons for the 2023-2024 season. Of these exports, 58% were shipped to Iran, followed by Turkey, which imported 19% of the total.

Dmitry Rylko confirmed earlier expectations of a significant reduction in barley yield and export potential for the current season. The total harvest is estimated at 16.9 million tons, down from last year’s figure of 21.1 million tons, with global shipments potentially reaching 13.5 million tons, up from 8.3 million tons the previous year.

“It is likely that our country has never sown so little spring barley, perhaps not even since tsarist times, but certainly not since 1970. This year has probably seen the lowest acreage dedicated to spring barley,” said Dmitry Rylko.