SovEcon expects Russia’s wheat exports in November at 2.8–3.2 million tonnes

Russia’s wheat exports in November may total 2.8–3.2 million tonnes, compared with 5.2 million tonnes a year earlier and 4 million tonnes on average over the past five years, consulting company SovEcon forecasts.

Despite logistical constraints, shipments remain above August levels, when Russia exported 2.1 million tonnes of wheat. However, without a significant improvement in Black Sea shipping conditions, supplies are likely to remain well below normal volumes throughout the winter, putting pressure on ruble prices, analysts say.

On November 9, SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2026/27 season by 0.7 million tonnes, from 36.7 million tonnes to 36 million tonnes. Under the base scenario, the company now does not expect Black Sea shipping to normalize before spring 2027, whereas previously it allowed for a recovery at the start of the year.

According to the analytical center, shipments through the Black Sea remain minimal — about 100–200 thousand tonnes per month. At the same time, risks remain for alternative export routes.

In particular, SovEcon points to the November 11 attack on the oil terminal in Ust-Luga. This port is now the main hub for Russian grain exports via the Baltic Sea: about 600–700 thousand tonnes per month pass through it.

Additional difficulties may arise in transit through the Baltic states. According to analysts, from November 16 Russian grain moving through Lithuania will face enhanced inspections, which could delay shipments by two months or more. In addition, the Baltic states are seeking a Europe-wide ban on the transit of Russian grain.

The end of river navigation in mid-November will also add to the burden on the overloaded rail network, SovEcon said.