US Department of Agriculture lowers forecast for Russian wheat exports to 39 million tonnes

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its November report lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2026/27 season by 1 million tons, to 39 million tons. The crop estimate was left unchanged at 88 million tons.

The forecast for domestic wheat consumption in Russia remained at 41.2 million tons. Against the backdrop of lower expected exports, the estimate for ending stocks was raised by 1 million tons, to 20.09 million tons.

As USDA notes, the conflict in the Black Sea region continues to curb shipments from Russia and Ukraine despite the use of alternative ports and transport methods. The forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports was also cut by 1 million tons, to 11.5 million tons.

At the same time, the agency raised its forecast for global wheat production by 5.12 million tons, to 827.51 million tons. The consumption estimate was increased by 1.65 million tons, to 829.55 million tons, and ending stocks by 4.78 million tons, to 280.82 million tons.

The forecast for global wheat trade, by contrast, was reduced by 310 thousand tons, to 208.66 million tons.

The higher global crop estimate was driven by improved forecasts for Argentina, Australia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. For Argentina and Australia, the forecasts were raised by 1.5 million tons, to 23 million and 32.5 million tons, respectively. USDA says the revision reflects favorable conditions as harvest begins in these countries.

Forecasts are being revised

Russian analysts are also revising export expectations because of logistical constraints.

SovEcon cut its wheat export forecast by 0.7 million tons, and total grain exports by 1.1 million tons. Estimates for barley and corn shipments were left at 3 million tons for each crop. The company assumes Black Sea shipping restrictions will remain in place until spring 2027: alternative routes do not fully offset the loss of traditional export opportunities.

IKAR lowered its main wheat export forecast from 42 million tons to 39.5 million tons, and total grain exports from 52.8 million tons to 49.5 million tons. At the same time, the institute raised its estimates for the stress scenario: for wheat, from 29 million tons to 30 million tons; for grain overall, from 35 million tons to 36.5 million tons. Actual exports are so far developing in line with the stress scenario, although shipment volumes are rising.

Harvest

Forecasts for the Russian wheat crop are mostly in the range of 87.5–88.5 million tons.

USDA in November kept its estimate at 88 million tons. IKAR October 12 also estimated the harvest at 88 million tons, while SovEcon October 7 lowered its forecast from 88.2 million tons to 87.5 million tons.

Russian Ministry of Agriculture expects around 2026 million tons of grain in clean weight at the end of 140 year. According to the latest data presented by Oksana Lut in the State Duma November 11, the harvest is practically complete on 97% of the area, with about 140 million tons threshed, including more than 95 million tons of wheat. These operational figures are given in bunker weight, so they cannot be directly compared with post-processing crop forecasts.