Rusagrotrans raised its forecast for wheat exports from Russia by 0.9 million tons, to 54 million tons

The analytical center of the largest railway operator in the Russian Federation, Rusagrotrans, has increased its estimate of the export potential of Russian wheat in the 2023/2024 season (from July 1, 2023 to June 30, 2024) to 54 million tons from the previous estimate of 53.1 million tons, as reported in the material provided to Agroexpert.

Experts have increased the forecast for wheat exports in May 2024 — now, taking into account the EAEU countries, it has been increased to 4.4–4.5 million tons (from 4.2 million tons), of which more than 3 million have already been exported from May 1 to May 20 tons versus 4.28 million tons in May 2023.

According to the analytical center, export prices for Russian wheat (protein 12.5%) for delivery in June increased by $30 to the level in early May, to $245 per ton FOB and higher. The cost of products from other countries also increased, while being quoted more expensive than Russian: the price of French wheat increased to 267 dollars per ton, for German wheat — to 266 dollars per ton (plus 19 dollars), for American wheat — to 269 dollars per ton (plus 37 dollars).

Experts cite the main reasons for rising prices on the world market as the declining potential of wheat production in Russia due to May frosts in some regions, lack of precipitation in the central European part of Russia and the lag in spring sowing in some regions of the Urals and Siberia against the backdrop of cold and rainy weather.

Thus, the domestic wheat market has been actively strengthening under the influence of traders’ demand, but agricultural producers are holding back sales amid high market volatility. Agricultural producers in frost-affected regions are calculating damage from frost and are busy reseeding areas lost from return frosts, company analysts write; the market is inactive.

According to their data, prices for fourth class wheat (protein 12.5%, EXW elevator, excluding VAT) in the South have strengthened to 13,800–14,000 rubles per ton (plus 1,600 rubles), in Central Russia – to 11,800–12 200 rubles per ton (plus 1,650 rubles), in the Volga region — up to 11,800–12,500 rubles per ton (plus 1,750 rubles). In Siberia, indicative prices for fourth-grade wheat increased to 10,200–11,200 rubles per ton (by 450 rubles).