Russian Companies to Boost Fertilizer Production and Export Over Two-Year Span

Experts quoted by the ‘Kommersant’ periodical anticipate that stable global market demand will lead to more consistent prices for major mineral fertilizers, enabling Russian manufacturers to increase production and export of certain products by 8% over the next two years.

Prices for the major fertilizers are expected to remain stable until 2026, with a gradual increase in production, as reported by ‘Kommersant’ with reference to the consensus forecast of the Price Index Center. Analysts suggest that the FOB Baltic price for carbamide could rise to $314 per ton by the end of the year, up from $273 per ton in the second quarter. The average price is anticipated to reach $300 per ton by the end of the year and is not expected to fall below $290 per ton in the next two years.

Industry experts believe that from 2024 to 2026, the prices of nitrogen-based fertilizers will be largely affected by fluctuations in gas prices, along with the supply-and-demand balance.

Market analysts predict a steady increase in prices for various fertilizer types. The cost of MAP/DAP fertilizers is expected to rise from the current $521 to $550 per ton annually. Over the next two years, experts anticipate the average annual price to range between $544 and $546 per ton per year. The cost of standard potassium fertilizer is expected to reach $232 per ton by the end of the year, with an increase to $258 per ton predicted for 2026.