SovEcon: Russian wheat exports in May will be close to a record

In May, Russia can repeat last year’s record for wheat exports of 4.1 million tons against the backdrop of its high competitiveness, according to the SovEkon analytical center.

Experts note that on average over five years, 1.5 million tons of wheat were exported from the country in May, but now its competitiveness has increased significantly: according to their data, as of mid-May, Russian wheat was offered at $238 per ton FOB, $21 cheaper than French wheat , and such a high difference has been recorded for the first time since the end of July 2023, when the grain deal was canceled.

The main source of support for quotes was the deterioration in crop prospects in Russia: for example, recently, the analytical center lowered its forecast for wheat production by 7.2 million tons, to 85.7 million tons, against the backdrop of weather anomalies in the Center and South of the country.

In turn, against the backdrop of worsening prospects for the new harvest, demand at international tenders also picked up: for example, on May 8, the Egyptian company GASC purchased 300 thousand tons of Russian wheat and 60 thousand tons of Romanian wheat against 120 thousand tons of Ukrainian wheat on April 16, and the average the price was $279 per ton (CFR, payment 270 days) versus $256 per ton in April.

Experts also indicate that the attractiveness of Russian wheat for buyers could increase against the backdrop of a slowdown in Ukrainian exports (as of May 17, 0.8 million tons of wheat were exported from the country, 29% less than a month earlier).

As a result, the volume of concluded contracts for the sale of Russian wheat as of May 21 amounted to 1.9 million tons compared to 0.9 million tons a month earlier: the activity of exporters increased, including against the backdrop of the distribution of additional export quotas.