The Center for Price Indexes lowered the forecast for the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation and raised it for sunflower and soybeans

The Center for Price Indexes lowered the forecast for the gross grain harvest in the 2024/2025 season, including wheat, and increased the estimate for sunflower and soybeans, according to information published in the Telegram channel of the Union of Grain Exporters.

The new consensus forecast for the gross grain harvest in the 2024/2025 agricultural year (starts on July 1) is 134 million tons, including 86.1 million tons of wheat. Before this, estimates were higher – 141.5 million tons and 90.5 million tons, respectively. In turn, the export potential for wheat in the new forecast is 46.1 million tons (previously 48.1 million tons).

The forecast for the gross harvest of sunflower in the 2024/2025 season has been revised upward — to 16.2 million tons from 15.5 million tons (the season for this crop begins on September 1). Accordingly, the forecast for sunflower oil production was increased — to 7.1 million tons from 6.4 million tons, as well as its export — to 4.6 million tons from 4.2 million tons.

The gross harvest of soybeans is now expected to be 6.6 million tons (previously estimated at 5.9 million tons, the season runs from September to August), estimates for the gross harvest of rapeseed have not changed — 4.2 million tons, for which the season is from August to July.

Experts also provide export estimates for the current 2023/2024 season: wheat exports — 52.9 million tons (unchanged), sunflower oil exports — 4.7 million tons (previously 4.3 million tons).